Midterm elections are still months away, but the race for Montana’s western congressional district is already heating up. 

The Cook Political Report ranks the seat, which has been held by Republican Ryan Zinke since 2022, as “likely Republican,” meaning the race “is not considered political at this point, but [has] the potential to become engaged.” But with 369 of the 435 House of Representatives seats considered solidly Republican or Democratic, the mere possibility of a flip makes western Montana one of the most competitive races in the country. 

“It really is a canary in the coal mine for the Republican Party to see if there’s a softening of support,” said Lee Banville, a political analyst and professor at the University of Montana School of Journalism. 

Banville said all of the candidates that have filed in the race face uphill battles in the coming year.  

Incumbent Zinke ended the year with minimal support from constituents. Only 26% of respondents said they approved of Zinke’s performance in the 2025 Mountain States Poll conducted by Montana State University Billings. Another 41% of respondents stated that they were neutral or unfamiliar with Zinke. 

Midterm elections tend to favor the political party not in control of the White House, said Banville, so Zinke’s low approval ratings could prove problematic in the coming election cycle. 

Zinke’s office did not respond to multiple requests for comment. 

On the other side of the aisle, Democrats Sam Forstag, Matt Rains and Russell Cleveland are starting the campaign with clean political slates. 

Forstag boasts a background as a smoke jumper and union organizer. Based in Missoula, the freshman candidate said he was spurred to enter the race after widespread cuts by the federal government gutted the U.S. Forest Service and other public land agencies. He launched his campaign on Monday.  

Rains followed up his time as a Blackhawk pilot in the U.S. Army with a career in international humanitarian photojournalism. He later worked as the chief of staff for the Montana Farmers Union and currently lives on a production livestock ranch near Simms, just outside of Montana’s western district. Candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives do not have to reside in the district they represent.  

Rains did not respond to multiple requests for comment on this story. 

Cleveland built an online child care company with his wife after serving in the U.S. Navy. The couple now lives on a ranch property in St. Regis and coaches at the local high school. 

Cleveland said he was spurred to enter the race for Montana’s western district after the Trump administration slashed medical research funding. The cuts hit close to home for Cleveland and his wife — the couple lost their eldest daughter to leukemia five years ago.  

“There was that moment of either you can keep complaining about it or you can get in the fight and try and change some of these things for the better instead,” he said. 

Cleveland characterized himself as an “old-school Democrat” focused on issues like workers’ rights, health care and cost of living. He said he hopes to appeal to moderate voters and capitalize on what he believes is “a huge Independent population” in western Montana. 

“I think what people want is someone that they feel is not radicalized, that they feel represents true Montana values that they can get behind,” said Cleveland.   

Republicans may have won all federal elections in Montana in 2024, but Cleveland pointed out that former Democratic Sen. Jon Tester carried the popular vote over Republican Tim Sheehy in the western district. He sees that as proof that western Montana is ready to send a Democratic representative to the U.S. House.    

Sheehy’s 2024 win over Tester proved to be the most expensive in Montana’s history, with upwards of $225 million spent on campaign activities for both candidates. Political action committees accounted for more than half of all spending, according to financial records. 

Banville said he will be looking for similar infusions of cash as the campaign continues.  

“If either side thinks Ryan Zinke is underperforming and can be knocked off, you’ll see an influx of outside money,” he said. 

Ultimately, the power to choose western Montana’s next representative rests, as ever, with the voters. 

“It’s really going to come down to, in an off-year election like this, who gets fired up and comes out to the polls,” said Banville. 

Reporter Hailey Smalley can be reached at 758-4433 or [email protected].